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From: William Lee Irwin III <wli@holomorphy.com>
To: Arjan van de Ven <arjan@infradead.org>
Cc: linux-kernel@vger.kernel.org
Subject: Re: Linux in a binary world... a doomsday scenario
Date: Mon, 5 Dec 2005 04:18:51 -0800	[thread overview]
Message-ID: <20051205121851.GC2838@holomorphy.com> (raw)
In-Reply-To: <1133779953.9356.9.camel@laptopd505.fenrus.org>

On Mon, Dec 05, 2005 at 11:52:32AM +0100, Arjan van de Ven wrote:
> Now this scenario may sound unlikely to you. And thankfully the main
> assumption (the December 6th event) is extremely unlikely.  
> However, and this unfortunately, several of the other "leaps" aren't
> that unlikely. In fact, some of these results are likely to happen
> regardless; witness the flamewars on lkml about breaking module API/ABI.
> Witness the ndiswrapper effect of vendors now saying "we support linux
> because ndiswrapper can use our windows driver". I hope they won't
> happen. Some of that hope will be idle hope, but I believe that the
> advantages of freedom in the end are strong enough to overcome the
> counter forces. 

The December 6 event is extraordinarily unlikely. What's vastly more
likely is consistent "erosion" over time. First the 3D video drivers,
then the wireless network drivers, then the fakeraid drivers, and so on.
Each instance degrades Linux' capabilities without such drivers, and
incrementally reduces the userbase of newer releases. I doubt there will
be a "revolutionary" step at all, just progressively more erosion over
time. As things go, Linux gets "flakier" as binary modules break for
people when they upgrade, new versions support less hardware as the
binary modules hobble them, and so on. DRM even threatens to prevent
some machines from booting Linux in the categorical sense.

I expect the closed source IP affairs rather to keep chipping away
until Linux is dead, or they get tired and change strategies to kill it,
versus any sudden changes of course.


-- wli

  parent reply	other threads:[~2005-12-05 12:19 UTC|newest]

Thread overview: 315+ messages / expand[flat|nested]  mbox.gz  Atom feed  top
2005-12-05 10:52 Linux in a binary world... a doomsday scenario Arjan van de Ven
2005-12-05 11:39 ` Dave Airlie
2005-12-05 13:55   ` Xavier Bestel
2005-12-08 14:27   ` Graham Murray
2005-12-05 12:18 ` William Lee Irwin III [this message]
2005-12-05 13:07   ` Pekka Enberg
2005-12-05 18:44     ` Alistair John Strachan
2005-12-05 19:47       ` Gene Heskett
2005-12-06 10:51       ` Luke-Jr
2005-12-06 12:29         ` Ralf Baechle
2005-12-07  0:01       ` William Lee Irwin III
2005-12-06 17:03     ` Jon Masters
2005-12-06  1:18   ` Andrea Arcangeli
2005-12-05 14:31     ` Brian Gerst
2005-12-06  3:08       ` Andrea Arcangeli
2005-12-05 16:23         ` Brian Gerst
2005-12-06 18:42           ` David Woodhouse
2005-12-06 19:23             ` Alan Cox
2005-12-06 21:33               ` Jeff Garzik
2005-12-06 22:25               ` David Woodhouse
2005-12-06 22:49                 ` Alan Cox
2005-12-06 23:03                   ` David Woodhouse
2005-12-06 23:25                 ` Andrew Grover
2005-12-07  0:56                   ` David Woodhouse
2005-12-06 10:42         ` Sander
     [not found]         ` <f0cc38560512060307m2ccc6db8xd9180c2a1a926c5c@mail.gmail.com>
2005-12-06 11:44           ` Arjan van de Ven
2005-12-06  1:43             ` Brian Gerst
2005-12-06 14:09               ` linux-os (Dick Johnson)
2005-12-14 16:33                 ` Eric W. Biederman
2005-12-14 17:01                   ` linux-os (Dick Johnson)
2005-12-14 17:20                     ` Eric W. Biederman
2005-12-14 18:51                       ` linux-os (Dick Johnson)
2005-12-06 14:13               ` Rudolf Randal
2005-12-06 14:49               ` Arjan van de Ven
2005-12-06 21:39                 ` Nicolas Mailhot
2005-12-08  0:58                   ` Kasper Sandberg
2005-12-08  2:24                     ` Diego Calleja
2005-12-08  6:21                       ` Zwane Mwaikambo
2005-12-08 12:31                         ` Diego Calleja
2005-12-08 12:39                           ` Arjan van de Ven
2005-12-08 13:01                             ` Matan Peled
2005-12-08 16:55                           ` Kasper Sandberg
2005-12-08 19:32                     ` Horst von Brand
2005-12-08 21:10                       ` linux-os (Dick Johnson)
2005-12-09  6:12                         ` Ben Greear
2005-12-07  7:02                 ` Luke-Jr
2005-12-07  7:03                   ` Arjan van de Ven
2005-12-06 15:16               ` Andrea Arcangeli
2005-12-06 15:30               ` Florian Weimer
2005-12-06 15:49                 ` Paweł Sikora
2005-12-06 19:00                   ` Tomasz Torcz
2005-12-06 19:11                     ` Paweł Sikora
2005-12-06 19:34                       ` Tomasz Torcz
2005-12-06 20:29                       ` Dave Jones
2005-12-06 23:25                         ` Bernd Petrovitsch
2005-12-06 19:13               ` Jeff Garzik
2005-12-06 19:37                 ` Lee Revell
2005-12-06 19:41                   ` Jeff Garzik
2005-12-06 19:55                     ` Lee Revell
2005-12-06 20:25                       ` Alan Cox
2005-12-06 21:55                         ` Dave Airlie
2005-12-06 21:49                       ` Reverse engineering (was Re: Linux in a binary world... a doomsday scenario) Jeff Garzik
2005-12-06 20:54                         ` Jeff V. Merkey
2005-12-06 23:13                           ` Reverse engineering Bernd Petrovitsch
2005-12-06 23:19                             ` Lee Revell
2005-12-06 22:21                         ` Reverse engineering (was Re: Linux in a binary world... a doomsday scenario) Lee Revell
2005-12-06 23:48                           ` Jeff Garzik
2005-12-06 22:44                       ` Linux in a binary world... a doomsday scenario Florian Weimer
2005-12-06 22:56                         ` Andrea Arcangeli
2005-12-06 23:17                         ` Lee Revell
2005-12-06 21:00               ` Francois Romieu
2005-12-08  1:04                 ` Kasper Sandberg
     [not found]             ` <6f6293f10512060404x57cfb97dqaa469f2701cd2528@mail.gmail.com>
2005-12-06 12:11               ` Arjan van de Ven
2005-12-06 15:09               ` Andrea Arcangeli
2005-12-06  9:07       ` Dirk Steuwer
2005-12-06 10:46         ` Sander
2005-12-06 16:41           ` Dirk Steuwer
2005-12-06 18:48             ` Lee Revell
2005-12-06 21:35               ` Grahame White
2005-12-07  8:09                 ` Dirk Steuwer
2005-12-07 12:47                   ` Lars Marowsky-Bree
2005-12-07  0:45             ` Horst von Brand
2005-12-07 14:17             ` Runs with Linux (tm) Benjamin LaHaise
2005-12-07 14:34               ` linux-os (Dick Johnson)
2005-12-07 18:13               ` Randy.Dunlap
2005-12-07 18:22                 ` Jesse Barnes
2005-12-12 21:13                   ` David Lang
2005-12-12 21:20                     ` Randy.Dunlap
2005-12-07 19:12               ` Lee Revell
2005-12-07 19:47                 ` Benjamin LaHaise
2005-12-07 22:23                   ` Jeffrey Hundstad
1970-01-02  3:28                     ` Pavel Machek
2005-12-07 22:29                     ` Michael Poole
2005-12-08  8:08                       ` Helge Hafting
2005-12-07 22:49                     ` Benjamin LaHaise
2005-12-08  3:28                     ` Magnus Damm
2005-12-08  2:07               ` Richard Knutsson
2005-12-08  2:38                 ` Benjamin LaHaise
2005-12-08  4:15                   ` Richard Knutsson
2005-12-08  8:50                     ` free Driver proposal (tm) Dirk Steuwer
2005-12-08  9:42               ` Runs with Linux (tm) jerome lacoste
2005-12-08 11:04                 ` Felix Oxley
2005-12-08 11:48                   ` jerome lacoste
2005-12-08 12:23                     ` Felix Oxley
2005-12-09  5:49         ` Linux in a binary world... a doomsday scenario Miles Bader
2005-12-09  9:49           ` Felix Oxley
2005-12-09  9:53             ` Bernd Petrovitsch
2005-12-06 15:17       ` Pavel Machek
2005-12-13  2:00         ` Rob Landley
2005-12-13  7:56           ` Arjan van de Ven
2005-12-13  9:07             ` Rob Landley
2005-12-13 10:18               ` Felix Oxley
2005-12-07 15:06       ` Rik van Riel
2005-12-08  7:14       ` Andrew McGregor
2005-12-06  8:29     ` Arjan van de Ven
2005-12-07 18:39       ` Rik van Riel
2005-12-07 18:44         ` Randy.Dunlap
2005-12-07 18:55           ` Arjan van de Ven
2005-12-07 19:53             ` Geert Uytterhoeven
2005-12-07 20:22               ` Gerrit Huizenga
2005-12-07 20:30                 ` Arjan van de Ven
2005-12-07 20:56                   ` Andrea Arcangeli
2005-12-07 21:02                 ` Dave Jones
2005-12-07 21:30                   ` Gerrit Huizenga
2005-12-07 21:38                     ` David S. Miller
2005-12-07 21:47                       ` Andrew Walrond
2005-12-07 21:53                       ` Gerrit Huizenga
2005-12-12 17:52                       ` Ric Wheeler
2005-12-13  8:17                         ` Andrew Walrond
2005-12-07 20:16             ` Andrea Arcangeli
2005-12-07 20:19               ` Arjan van de Ven
2005-12-07 20:40                 ` Andrea Arcangeli
2005-12-08 13:23                   ` Dirk Steuwer
2005-12-08 14:03                     ` Diego Calleja
2005-12-08 18:44                 ` Dave Neuer
2005-12-07 20:51               ` Rik van Riel
2005-12-07 19:34           ` Lee Revell
2005-12-07 23:17           ` Horst von Brand
2005-12-09  6:17             ` Ben Greear
2005-12-08 10:58           ` Sander
2005-12-06 12:26     ` Denis Vlasenko
2005-12-06 15:36       ` Hannu Savolainen
2005-12-06 18:51         ` Lee Revell
2005-12-06 20:26           ` Hannu Savolainen
2005-12-07 15:18         ` Avi Kivity
2005-12-07 20:10       ` Geert Uytterhoeven
     [not found]         ` <f0cc38560512071322m1d370589vd9f8a7684fa2ee1d@mail.gmail.com>
2005-12-08 12:19           ` Geert Uytterhoeven
2005-12-06 17:23     ` Jon Masters
2005-12-05 17:18 ` Jeff Garzik
2005-12-05 17:29   ` Jan-Benedict Glaw
2005-12-05 22:52     ` Bernd Petrovitsch
2005-12-06  6:28     ` Rob Landley
2005-12-05 18:26 ` Andrew Walrond
2005-12-05 18:34   ` Arjan van de Ven
2005-12-05 19:41     ` jmerkey
2005-12-06  9:26     ` [OT] " Alexander E. Patrakov
2005-12-06 16:27     ` Simon Oosthoek
2005-12-06 18:50       ` Luke-Jr
2005-12-08  8:14         ` Helge Hafting
2005-12-08 11:30           ` Luke-Jr
2005-12-12 11:27             ` Helge Hafting
2005-12-08 13:48           ` Nix
2005-12-12 12:01             ` Helge Hafting
2005-12-12 19:46               ` Nix
2005-12-13  8:10                 ` Helge Hafting
2005-12-13 22:21                   ` Nix
2005-12-14  8:14                     ` Helge Hafting
2005-12-16  7:38                       ` Nix
2005-12-05 21:19   ` David Woodhouse
2005-12-05 21:24     ` Arjan van de Ven
2005-12-05 21:54       ` David Woodhouse
2005-12-05 23:56         ` Tim Bird
2005-12-06  0:10           ` Dave Airlie
2005-12-06  0:23             ` Tim Bird
2005-12-06  0:26               ` Tim Bird
2005-12-06  4:08               ` Greg KH
2005-12-06  6:07                 ` Willy Tarreau
2005-12-06  7:06                   ` Neil Brown
2005-12-06  8:13                   ` David Woodhouse
2005-12-06  9:10                     ` Bernd Petrovitsch
2005-12-06 16:47                   ` Greg KH
2005-12-06  7:58                 ` Coywolf Qi Hunt
2005-12-06 16:11                   ` Greg KH
2005-12-07  1:38                     ` Coywolf Qi Hunt
2005-12-07  2:40                       ` Greg KH
2005-12-07  3:23                         ` Coywolf Qi Hunt
2005-12-07  5:29                           ` Greg KH
2005-12-07 18:57                           ` Horst von Brand
2005-12-10  5:17                       ` GNU/Linux " Richard M. Stallman
2005-12-06 18:56                   ` Linux " Luke-Jr
2005-12-07  1:42                     ` Coywolf Qi Hunt
2005-12-07  2:06                       ` Wed, 7 Dec 2005 03:06:35 +0100
2005-12-07  5:25                         ` Jeff Garzik
2005-12-10  5:16                       ` GNU/Linux " Richard M. Stallman
2005-12-10  7:06                         ` Jeff V. Merkey
2005-12-10 16:43                           ` Helge Hafting
2005-12-10 19:05                             ` Jan-Benedict Glaw
2005-12-10 18:44                               ` Jeff V. Merkey
2005-12-10 19:15                                 ` Jan-Benedict Glaw
2005-12-10 20:44                                   ` Jeff V. Merkey
2005-12-10 21:47                                     ` Jan-Benedict Glaw
2005-12-11 13:56                                     ` Bernd Petrovitsch
2005-12-11 15:15                                     ` Erwin Rol
2005-12-11 16:38                                       ` Florian Weimer
2005-12-12 15:51                                         ` Alan Cox
2005-12-11 16:27                                     ` Florian Weimer
2005-12-11 16:49                                     ` Richard M. Stallman
2005-12-11 23:19                                     ` Helge Hafting
2005-12-12 13:45                                       ` Bernd Petrovitsch
2005-12-12 15:34                                         ` Lee Revell
2005-12-12 15:37                                           ` Bernd Petrovitsch
2005-12-11 13:24                             ` Bernd Petrovitsch
2005-12-10 20:04                           ` [way OT] " Sean
2005-12-10 20:04                             ` Sean
2005-12-11  2:12                           ` Horst von Brand
2005-12-11  5:40                           ` Patrick McLean
     [not found]                           ` <E1ElJMz-00047E-1p@fencepost.gnu.org>
2005-12-11  8:34                             ` Jeff V. Merkey
2005-12-12  0:44                               ` Richard M. Stallman
2005-12-12  0:50                                 ` Jeff V. Merkey
2005-12-12  3:03                                   ` Luke-Jr
2005-12-06  4:18               ` Linux " Al Viro
2005-12-06  2:22             ` Gene Heskett
2005-12-06  3:56               ` Zwane Mwaikambo
2005-12-06  4:27                 ` Gene Heskett
2005-12-06 18:33                 ` Jesper Juhl
2005-12-06 19:12                   ` Zwane Mwaikambo
2005-12-06 19:15                     ` Jesper Juhl
2005-12-08 21:49                 ` Rob Landley
2005-12-10  2:38                   ` Lee Revell
2005-12-10  5:51                 ` Luke-Jr
2005-12-06 11:38               ` Jean-Christian de Rivaz
2005-12-06 19:12                 ` Jesper Juhl
2005-12-06 21:13                   ` Jon Masters
2005-12-06  0:14           ` Bernd Petrovitsch
2005-12-06  0:34           ` David Woodhouse
2005-12-06  0:53           ` Andrea Arcangeli
2005-12-06  1:20             ` Tim Bird
2005-12-06  1:35               ` Andrea Arcangeli
2005-12-06  1:55                 ` Jeff Garzik
2005-12-06  9:16               ` Xavier Bestel
2005-12-06  9:26               ` Bernd Petrovitsch
2005-12-06  9:56                 ` David Woodhouse
2005-12-06 10:09                   ` Jeff Garzik
2005-12-06 14:50                   ` Andrea Arcangeli
2005-12-06 15:25                     ` David Woodhouse
2005-12-06 19:58                       ` Alan Cox
2005-12-06 19:20                     ` Jeff Garzik
2005-12-06  4:12           ` Greg KH
2005-12-06  4:18             ` Michael Poole
2005-12-06 17:21               ` Benjamin LaHaise
2005-12-07 12:39                 ` Helge Hafting
2005-12-07 12:41                   ` Christoph Hellwig
2005-12-07 14:25               ` Rik van Riel
2005-12-07 15:56                 ` Michael Poole
2005-12-06 18:19             ` Theodore Ts'o
2005-12-06 19:27               ` Alan Cox
2005-12-06 19:38                 ` Theodore Ts'o
2005-12-06 20:18                   ` Alan Cox
2005-12-06 20:53                     ` Theodore Ts'o
2005-12-07 14:30           ` Rik van Riel
2005-12-05 23:24 ` Matthieu CASTET
2005-12-06 13:28   ` Ralf Baechle
2005-12-06  2:58 ` Andre Hedrick
2005-12-06 13:13 ` Rudolf Randal
2005-12-06 15:09   ` Mark Lord
2005-12-06 16:16 ` Jon Smirl
2005-12-06 16:32   ` Florian Weimer
2005-12-07 12:44     ` Helge Hafting
2005-12-07 12:49       ` Alan Cox
2005-12-07 16:15       ` Jon Smirl
2005-12-07 12:55     ` Lars Marowsky-Bree
2005-12-07 21:46   ` Chase Venters
2005-12-07 23:07     ` Alan Cox
2005-12-07 23:41       ` Jon Smirl
2005-12-07 23:59         ` Chase Venters
2005-12-08  8:24           ` Helge Hafting
2005-12-06 14:23 Aimo Asiakas
2005-12-06 14:36 ` Arjan van de Ven
2005-12-06 15:31 ` Pekka Enberg
2005-12-07 21:06 Salyzyn, Mark
2005-12-12 14:45 ` Andrea Arcangeli
2005-12-13  8:25 ` Helge Hafting
2005-12-13  9:44   ` Bernd Petrovitsch
2005-12-13 12:14     ` Alan Cox
2005-12-14  8:59     ` Helge Hafting
2005-12-14  9:14       ` Bernd Petrovitsch
2005-12-13 17:02   ` Gene Heskett
2005-12-14  8:48     ` Helge Hafting
2005-12-08 10:27 Nicolas Mailhot
2005-12-09 15:59 ` Dirk Steuwer
2005-12-08 15:49 AW: " dirk
2005-12-08 16:14 ` Diego Calleja
2005-12-08 20:28   ` Horst von Brand
     [not found] <20051208083941.B233113E51@rhn.tartu-labor>
2005-12-08 17:13 ` Kasper Sandberg
2005-12-13 22:59 mreuther
2005-12-13 23:05 ` Bernd Petrovitsch
2005-12-13 23:54 art
2005-12-14 21:13 Al Boldi
2005-12-14 21:27 ` Arjan van de Ven
2005-12-15  4:49   ` Al Boldi
2005-12-15  5:24     ` Nick Piggin
2005-12-15  8:31       ` Al Boldi
2005-12-15  8:53         ` Arjan van de Ven
2005-12-15  9:24         ` Nick Piggin
2005-12-15  9:35         ` Sean
2005-12-15  9:35           ` Sean
2005-12-15 11:14         ` Helge Hafting
2005-12-15 18:29           ` Al Boldi
2005-12-15 19:01             ` Dmitry Torokhov
2005-12-15 19:06             ` Lee Revell
2005-12-15 19:09             ` Al Viro
2005-12-16  2:09             ` Nick Piggin
2005-12-19 10:57             ` Helge Hafting
2005-12-19 15:19               ` Al Boldi
2005-12-15  5:39     ` Kyle Moffett
2005-12-15  7:11     ` Arjan van de Ven
2005-12-15  9:11 ` Bernd Petrovitsch
     [not found] <5jMcG-5mY-19@gated-at.bofh.it>
     [not found] ` <5jWON-3xQ-29@gated-at.bofh.it>
     [not found]   ` <5jZk7-7iD-19@gated-at.bofh.it>
     [not found]     ` <5k6bw-AI-19@gated-at.bofh.it>
2005-12-16  6:57       ` Bodo Eggert

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